By Ozzie Jurock
This article appeared in The Vancouver Sun on May 1, 2004

While the population of British Columbia is projected to increase to 4,275,000 by 2005 from 4,100,000 today, at least 16 regions and more than two dozen cities and towns will continue to lose population during the same period. This means more than half of the 29 regional districts in the province are seeing a decline in population and the trend is accelerating in most resource areas. It could be seen as a new crop of ghost towns in the making.

Virtually all rural regional districts will have less people living there by 2005 than they did in 1996. Statistics just released by BC Stats, (www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/data/pop/pop/rd/rdproj1.htm) provide a grim prognosis for the future in the heartland of B.C., where downturns in the resource sector and a subsequent hemorrhaging of population have become defining characteristics.

Examples range from Prince Rupert, on the North Coast, which has lost nearly 20 per cent of its residents in the past decade, to Revelstoke, in the Kootenays, where the population has declined by nearly 500 people - to 7,300 - in the past five years. When B.C.'s major urban and recreational areas (the Capital, Greater Vancouver and the Okanagan) are taken out of the calculations, the rest of the province has virtually no population growth at all in seven years.

David O'Neil, a manager at BC Stats, says the regional population forecasts are not based just on a continuation of current growth patterns, but take into account major project announcements, inter-provincial migration and a number of other variables that could affect a specific regional district.

This doesn't mean that all regions with negative population growth are poor risks for real estate investment. For instance, while the population of Fernie has been falling since the mid-1990s, the city has strong potential due to its proximity to new Kootenay ski resorts.

And, while Prince George has lost 3,000 residents since 1996, several factors point to a stronger upside in the rental market. These include the popularity of the city's new university, a regional hospital expansion and recent rail and airport spending.

Or, consider Houston, which has lost population steadily but is now the site of a $26 million investment by Canfor, which is creating the largest sawmill in the world. The high-speed mill will produce 2,300 boards a minute and will employ 365 workers.

The opposite can also be true. Whistler is a growing town, but spiraling real estate prices have lowered its allure for investors.

Take a look at the following charts:

B.C. Population forecast - 16 regions with negative growth

Statistics: BC Stats/August 2003 * Projection

B.C. Population forecast - 7 regions with explosive growth

Statistics: BC Stats/August 2003 * Projection

Here are the major points investors in real estate need to consider:

1. The trend of population away from rural areas in B.C. is clear, but it can spell opportunity for those who research specific markets for specific investments. Personal research is the key to selecting the wheat from the chaff.
2. If you are a flipper or a shark, population growth patterns don't matter. You buy the deal. Even property in Prince Rupert can be a good deal when the purchase price for a condo is less than $20,000, even with a declining population.
3. For safe, long-term investments stay in the "growth areas." Values grow where people go. The places where people want to live and play are where investors will find steady rental income.